Bitcoin Breakout Above $86K Could Ignite Run to $105K

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin trades near $85K as bulls eye $86K breakout.
• Resistance at $91,275 remains critical for short-term holders.
• RSI, spot CVD, and whale behavior suggest upward bias.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $85,000 on Apr. 19, with traders eyeing a breakout above $86,000 as the next inflection point. Market watchers say a move past this level could confirm a falling wedge breakout, possibly sending the price toward $105,000.

BTC traded at $84,972 at the time of writing, up 0.59% on the day. The daily relative strength index (RSI) sat at 52.82—neutral territory, but tilting bullish.

Tight Range, Big Stakes: $83K or $86K?

Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow band. According to Ali Martinez, “BTC remains in consolidation,” with a key range between $83,000 and $86,000.

This range has held firm over the past week, with buyers and sellers locked in a deadlock. Volatility remains compressed, but analysts say a breakout could be imminent.

The next major hurdle is $91,275—short-term holder realized price.

Ali noted that this level represents the average cost basis of short-term holders. A break above could trigger FOMO and confirm bullish momentum.

Altcoin Sherpa echoed a similar view. “$BTC price either goes to 78K or 91K, I don’t know where first,” he said. “Don’t diddle in the middle.”

That indecision mirrors broader sentiment. The current zone around $85K sits in no-man’s-land for many traders.

Bitcoin Falling Wedge Breakout Eyes $105K Extension

The falling wedge pattern that started in early Jan. appears close to a confirmed breakout. If validated, the technical target stands at $105,820—marked by the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the Nov. 10 swing low.

Bitcoin must first clear $91K resistance. The upside scenario suggests a potential 22% rally from current levels.

The daily candle structure has turned constructive, with higher lows forming consistently since late March. Buyers reclaimed the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zones near $83,467 and $86,615 respectively, reinforcing the breakout thesis.

CredibleCrypto pointed to bullish divergence between price and spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) on lower timeframes. “Spot takers continue to sell, but price is rising,” he posted.

He interpreted this behavior as “clear spot absorption,” typical of local bottoms.

Unlike prior moves where spot CVD tracked price, the current divergence implies larger buyers are stepping in quietly. That adds credibility to the idea of a new uptrend forming beneath the surface.

Are Whales Still ‘Smart Money’? Not Always

While many still equate whale activity with smart investing, not all large holders perform equally well.

Carmelo_Alemán challenged this assumption, citing on-chain data comparing new short-term whales (STH) and long-term holders (LTH).

“STH whales, with a realized price of $90,159.8, are currently at a loss,” he wrote. In contrast, long-term holders, especially those in the 2–3-year UTXO age band, historically outperform across cycles.

This data suggests that timing matters more than wallet size. LTH whales who bought during prior cycle lows remain in strong profit zones.

Macro View: Trump Trade and Rate Jitters Linger

Bitcoin’s momentum builds despite broader macroeconomic unease. The U.S. Federal Reserve reported deteriorating manufacturing data this week, with the Philadelphia Fed Index showing the worst reading since 2020.

Markets remain unsure whether this will delay or reinforce the case for rate cuts. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to cast a shadow over institutional flows.

Despite macro headwinds, price action holds firm above $84K—a level that marks the battleground for the next major move.

Bitcoin bulls are not in the clear yet. The $91K zone remains a key psychological and technical barrier.

A successful breakout above that level could validate the wedge structure and put $105K in play. But until BTC clears $86K with volume, traders may remain sidelined.

Retail participation remains subdued. Spot CVD divergence, RSI strength, and Fibonacci support suggest institutional players are accumulating.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only. And they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.